Yesterday, 10:35 PM
If You Had Trusted the “Settled Science” of the Day, This Is How It Might Have Gone.
Every generation has things it considers safe, modern and scientifically proven.
Then, years later, people sometimes look back and ask:
“How did they ever think that was safe?”
The people who followed that advice were not stupid.
They were simply trusting the best information available to them at the time.
Here are some examples.
1890s: The “Heroic” Cough Medicine
Your baby has a cough.
You buy Bayer's new cough medicine because it is advertised as a non-addictive alternative to morphine and is considered suitable for children.
The problem?
It contains heroin.
Yes, heroin.
Bayer marketed it as a powerful new medicine and even gave it a name derived from the German word for heroic.
What was considered modern medicine at the time would later become one of the world's most dangerous drugs.
1900s: Mercury for Teething Babies
Your baby is teething.
You use calomel powder on the baby's gums because it is a common treatment.
Calomel contains mercury, a toxic metal.
Some children developed a condition called pink disease.
Their hands and feet could become swollen and painful. Their skin could peel. Some children suffered terribly for months.
Some died.
A treatment that was once considered normal was exposing babies to mercury poisoning.
1910s: Crisco and the New “Modern” Fat
Your mother cooks with lard.
But you are told that Crisco is the modern alternative.
It was developed from cottonseed oil and became popular as a replacement for animal fats.
The problem was the process used to turn liquid vegetable oil into a solid cooking fat.
That process produced trans fats.
Trans fats are a type of fat that can increase harmful cholesterol and increase the risk of heart disease.
Decades later, governments would move to remove industrial trans fats from the food supply.
What was once marketed as modern and healthy eventually became something regulators wanted eliminated.
1920s: Radioactive Water for Health
You want more energy and better health.
So you take Radithor, a radioactive water product that was sold as a health treatment.
One wealthy American businessman, Eben Byers, reportedly drank around 1,400 bottles.
The result was horrific.
Radioactive poisoning destroyed his bones and severely damaged his body.
Part of his jaw had to be removed.
He was eventually buried in a lead-lined coffin because of the radioactivity remaining in his body.
Imagine drinking radioactive water because it was sold as a health product.
1930s: A Medicine Made With Antifreeze
A new drug called a sulfa medicine was being developed.
To make it easier to take as a liquid, a chemist dissolved it in diethylene glycol, a toxic chemical also used in some industrial applications and commonly associated with antifreeze.
The result was deadly.
More than 100 people died, many of them children.
The tragedy helped lead to major changes in American drug regulation and stronger requirements for demonstrating that medicines were safe before being sold.
1940s: Your Doctor Smokes During Surgery
Imagine lying on an operating table while your doctor is holding a cigarette.
At the time, cigarette advertising was everywhere.
Camel cigarettes were heavily promoted to doctors, and advertisements even claimed that more doctors smoked Camels than any other cigarette.
Smoking was not yet understood by the public as the enormous health threat we know today.
The cigarette companies had professional-looking advertisements, scientific claims and respected people appearing to support their products.
1950s: DDT Is Everywhere
Mosquitoes and other insects are a major problem.
DDT is a powerful insect killer.
So it is sprayed in homes, gardens and public places.
Children are exposed to it at school.
The scientist who discovered its powerful insect-killing properties, Paul Müller, received the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948.
Later, serious concerns emerged about DDT's effects on wildlife and the environment.
Its use was eventually heavily restricted or banned in many countries.
1960s: The “Safe” Morning-Sickness Drug
Your wife is pregnant and suffering from morning sickness.
A drug called thalidomide is promoted as remarkably safe.
She takes it.
Then the terrible consequences become clear.
Thousands of babies around the world are born with severe birth defects, including missing or shortened arms and legs.
The disaster changed drug safety regulations around the world.
And it showed that a medicine can appear safe until it is tested in enough people under the right conditions.
1970s: Butter Out, Margarine In
You are told to reduce butter because saturated fat is considered dangerous for the heart.
So you switch to margarine.
Some margarines contain large amounts of trans fat, created during the industrial process used to harden vegetable oils.
Years later, the health risks of industrial trans fats became much clearer.
In the United States, the FDA moved to effectively eliminate artificial trans fats from the food supply.
The food people were encouraged to replace butter with became a health concern itself.
1980s: Take the Fat Out, Put the Sugar In
The low-fat message becomes stronger.
Food manufacturers remove fat from many products.
But there is a problem.
Fat gives food flavour and makes it satisfying.
So when fat is removed, something often has to replace it.
Sugar becomes an easy answer.
Low-fat and reduced-fat foods can still contain plenty of sugar.
Over the following decades, obesity rates rose dramatically in many countries.
Of course, obesity has many causes, including overall calorie intake, physical activity, genetics, environment and food availability.
But the simple message that “low fat automatically means healthy” turned out to be far more complicated.
1990s: OxyContin and the Addiction Crisis
Your doctor gives you OxyContin for pain.
You are told the risk of addiction is very low.
The drug becomes a major commercial success.
Then the opioid crisis grows.
The manufacturer, Purdue Pharma, later pleaded guilty in connection with the illegal marketing of opioids.
Millions of people became affected by opioid addiction and overdose.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans eventually died from opioid-related overdoses over the following decades.
A medicine can be useful for pain and still carry enormous risks when it is widely prescribed and aggressively marketed.
2000s: Vioxx for Your Knee Pain
Your knee hurts.
Your doctor prescribes Vioxx, a popular painkiller.
Then safety concerns grow.
In 2004, Merck withdrew Vioxx from the market after evidence showed an increased risk of cardiovascular problems.
The drug became one of the major examples used in discussions about drug safety, clinical trials and how medicines are monitored after they reach the public.
The Bigger Lesson
None of the people who followed these recommendations were necessarily stupid.
They were following the advice of doctors, scientists, regulators and respected institutions of their time.
That is what makes these stories so important.
The problem is not that science changes.
Science is supposed to change when better evidence appears.
The problem comes when we confuse:
“This is the best evidence we have right now”
with:
“This can never be wrong.”
And then comes the uncomfortable question...
What are we confidently recommending today that future generations might look back on and say:
“How did they ever believe that?”
Maybe some of today's ideas will survive every future test.
Maybe some will change.
Maybe some will be completely abandoned.
That is why questioning, testing and continuing to investigate are so important.
“Settled” should never mean “stop looking.”
Because the history of science shows us something very clearly:
Yesterday's certainty can become tomorrow's lesson.
Every generation has things it considers safe, modern and scientifically proven.
Then, years later, people sometimes look back and ask:
“How did they ever think that was safe?”
The people who followed that advice were not stupid.
They were simply trusting the best information available to them at the time.
Here are some examples.
1890s: The “Heroic” Cough Medicine
Your baby has a cough.
You buy Bayer's new cough medicine because it is advertised as a non-addictive alternative to morphine and is considered suitable for children.
The problem?
It contains heroin.
Yes, heroin.
Bayer marketed it as a powerful new medicine and even gave it a name derived from the German word for heroic.
What was considered modern medicine at the time would later become one of the world's most dangerous drugs.
1900s: Mercury for Teething Babies
Your baby is teething.
You use calomel powder on the baby's gums because it is a common treatment.
Calomel contains mercury, a toxic metal.
Some children developed a condition called pink disease.
Their hands and feet could become swollen and painful. Their skin could peel. Some children suffered terribly for months.
Some died.
A treatment that was once considered normal was exposing babies to mercury poisoning.
1910s: Crisco and the New “Modern” Fat
Your mother cooks with lard.
But you are told that Crisco is the modern alternative.
It was developed from cottonseed oil and became popular as a replacement for animal fats.
The problem was the process used to turn liquid vegetable oil into a solid cooking fat.
That process produced trans fats.
Trans fats are a type of fat that can increase harmful cholesterol and increase the risk of heart disease.
Decades later, governments would move to remove industrial trans fats from the food supply.
What was once marketed as modern and healthy eventually became something regulators wanted eliminated.
1920s: Radioactive Water for Health
You want more energy and better health.
So you take Radithor, a radioactive water product that was sold as a health treatment.
One wealthy American businessman, Eben Byers, reportedly drank around 1,400 bottles.
The result was horrific.
Radioactive poisoning destroyed his bones and severely damaged his body.
Part of his jaw had to be removed.
He was eventually buried in a lead-lined coffin because of the radioactivity remaining in his body.
Imagine drinking radioactive water because it was sold as a health product.
1930s: A Medicine Made With Antifreeze
A new drug called a sulfa medicine was being developed.
To make it easier to take as a liquid, a chemist dissolved it in diethylene glycol, a toxic chemical also used in some industrial applications and commonly associated with antifreeze.
The result was deadly.
More than 100 people died, many of them children.
The tragedy helped lead to major changes in American drug regulation and stronger requirements for demonstrating that medicines were safe before being sold.
1940s: Your Doctor Smokes During Surgery
Imagine lying on an operating table while your doctor is holding a cigarette.
At the time, cigarette advertising was everywhere.
Camel cigarettes were heavily promoted to doctors, and advertisements even claimed that more doctors smoked Camels than any other cigarette.
Smoking was not yet understood by the public as the enormous health threat we know today.
The cigarette companies had professional-looking advertisements, scientific claims and respected people appearing to support their products.
1950s: DDT Is Everywhere
Mosquitoes and other insects are a major problem.
DDT is a powerful insect killer.
So it is sprayed in homes, gardens and public places.
Children are exposed to it at school.
The scientist who discovered its powerful insect-killing properties, Paul Müller, received the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1948.
Later, serious concerns emerged about DDT's effects on wildlife and the environment.
Its use was eventually heavily restricted or banned in many countries.
1960s: The “Safe” Morning-Sickness Drug
Your wife is pregnant and suffering from morning sickness.
A drug called thalidomide is promoted as remarkably safe.
She takes it.
Then the terrible consequences become clear.
Thousands of babies around the world are born with severe birth defects, including missing or shortened arms and legs.
The disaster changed drug safety regulations around the world.
And it showed that a medicine can appear safe until it is tested in enough people under the right conditions.
1970s: Butter Out, Margarine In
You are told to reduce butter because saturated fat is considered dangerous for the heart.
So you switch to margarine.
Some margarines contain large amounts of trans fat, created during the industrial process used to harden vegetable oils.
Years later, the health risks of industrial trans fats became much clearer.
In the United States, the FDA moved to effectively eliminate artificial trans fats from the food supply.
The food people were encouraged to replace butter with became a health concern itself.
1980s: Take the Fat Out, Put the Sugar In
The low-fat message becomes stronger.
Food manufacturers remove fat from many products.
But there is a problem.
Fat gives food flavour and makes it satisfying.
So when fat is removed, something often has to replace it.
Sugar becomes an easy answer.
Low-fat and reduced-fat foods can still contain plenty of sugar.
Over the following decades, obesity rates rose dramatically in many countries.
Of course, obesity has many causes, including overall calorie intake, physical activity, genetics, environment and food availability.
But the simple message that “low fat automatically means healthy” turned out to be far more complicated.
1990s: OxyContin and the Addiction Crisis
Your doctor gives you OxyContin for pain.
You are told the risk of addiction is very low.
The drug becomes a major commercial success.
Then the opioid crisis grows.
The manufacturer, Purdue Pharma, later pleaded guilty in connection with the illegal marketing of opioids.
Millions of people became affected by opioid addiction and overdose.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans eventually died from opioid-related overdoses over the following decades.
A medicine can be useful for pain and still carry enormous risks when it is widely prescribed and aggressively marketed.
2000s: Vioxx for Your Knee Pain
Your knee hurts.
Your doctor prescribes Vioxx, a popular painkiller.
Then safety concerns grow.
In 2004, Merck withdrew Vioxx from the market after evidence showed an increased risk of cardiovascular problems.
The drug became one of the major examples used in discussions about drug safety, clinical trials and how medicines are monitored after they reach the public.
The Bigger Lesson
None of the people who followed these recommendations were necessarily stupid.
They were following the advice of doctors, scientists, regulators and respected institutions of their time.
That is what makes these stories so important.
The problem is not that science changes.
Science is supposed to change when better evidence appears.
The problem comes when we confuse:
“This is the best evidence we have right now”
with:
“This can never be wrong.”
And then comes the uncomfortable question...
What are we confidently recommending today that future generations might look back on and say:
“How did they ever believe that?”
Maybe some of today's ideas will survive every future test.
Maybe some will change.
Maybe some will be completely abandoned.
That is why questioning, testing and continuing to investigate are so important.
“Settled” should never mean “stop looking.”
Because the history of science shows us something very clearly:
Yesterday's certainty can become tomorrow's lesson.